Italy continues its decline

Sadly, far from the widely accepted traditional model of large, boisterous families, Italian society is rapidly becoming one of singles and two-job, one-child married couples.

Much like the sinking, decaying city of Venice, Italian culture is soon to be no more. The older generation has been referred to as the "last Catholic generation."

The United States will soon have more Italian blood than Italy. Photo, left: A copy of the ship manifest of my ancestor's arrival from Italy (Mario Zignego, #14). Found this at Ellis Island.

I should note that U.S. birth rates are declining as well; I posit the only reason U.S. birth rates haven't dropped even further is the resistance of some to the use of birth control and abortion [Planned Parenthood has been targeting Catholics, Hispanics and Muslims for a reason.]

In Italy, abortions are "free" (taxpayer-financed) in public hospitals or in private structures authorized by the regional health authorities. Italy has attempted to raise its birth rate through financial incentives. That hasn't worked for Russia, Germany, etc so why would it work for Italy? When children are a commodity, or something to check off a list, they are not seen as a gift. We are seeing the fruits of the legalization of birth control, sexual freedom, abortion, and so on.

Italy is a popular tourist destination for the obvious reasons. Sadly, it will become more of a Disney World type destination in the years to come, a window into a world that once was and never will be again, preserved simply for tourists to take pictures.

The archetypal Italian family, with mamma and papa presiding over a noisy dinner table, surrounded by rambunctious children and grandchildren, has become a cultural artifact of the past. Not only are Italians not having children, they are increasingly not even bothering to get married, according to recently released government statistics.

The decline in marriages is unusually uniform in a country that sees large regional cultural differences between north and south. While Italy still has a relatively low rate of divorce, with only about 10 percent of marriages failing, young people especially are increasingly either delaying marriage for decades, or opting out altogether.

The decrease can mainly be seen in a decline in first marriages, particularly among people under 35. In just two years, the number of first marriages across the country has dropped by 30,000. At the same time, while abortion rates remain relatively low compared to other countries, Italy continues its birth-rate spiral, with only 1.39 children born per woman.

10 comments:

Anonymous said...

Great/interesting post.

I think we still should commend the low divorce rate, as well as legal restrictions on IVF and abortion which while not to the standard Catholics want, certainly does tack a bit more towards the "culture of life" than the US legal framework.

The whole thing with demographics and populations is fascinationg. The "big Italian family" is such a strong image (in the minds of Americans) anyway that it is amazing to think that a large percentage of Italian children do not have aunts or uncles, to say nothing of cousins.

1 child, 1 or 2 parents, and 0-4 grandparents makes for kind of a quiet house at Christmastide. This seems sad and unfair to kids (to say nothing of a ticking timebomb for whatever thier equvillent of social security is.)

I would point out though, the population of Italy is around 60 million. The population of all of Europe during the time of St. Thomas Aquinas was probably in the range of 70-100 million.

Also declines come and go (it is not as if there has been constant population growth in Europe forever there are periods of decline.)

What is going to happen is something that is increasingly documented here and and all over the world really. The devoutly religious (be they Catholic, Muslim, Mormon, etc.) tend to have larger families. Maybe in the 1910s it could just be assumed that nearly every family in Italy was a big family. Today such people might be part of a "creative minority." I mean there are obviously going to some big Catholic families there still and they are going to make up an increasing share of the population over time.

I guess the first place you see this is in the priesthood itself (the vast majority of younger priests will be comming from families that have made a concious choice to be actively Catholic in a secular world.) Then you see this in the church at large (more traditional younger priest with a congregation of liberal baby-boomers.) At a certain point (perhapes just within a generation) you have Fr. Z's "biological solution". Once traditional minded people "win" the battle" within the Church the Church can put up a united front in its dialouge with society.

Long story short, while this isn't the best news, fear not! Say you have a small Italian village of 200 people and 3 married couples (6 people) are devout young Catholics so 3%, seemingly a tiny tiny remnant, but then if those 3 couples break out of the demographic-malaise and each have say 4-8 kids each, well then you've got a new generation of 16-24 people, that has an impact.

Virginia Zignego said...

A number of demographers have noted that once a society drops to 1.2 replacement rate, their is no chance of recovering. It takes 100 years for a sociey/culture to replace itself, and I highly doubt that Italy will be able to replace its genuinely authentic, Catholic heritage before the Muslims become a majority. I don't think there are enough practicing Catholics with big families to compensate. Why does this matter? As Creative Minority Report noted -- I wonder how the Vatican will fare in a Muslim dominated Italy.

I was in Italy over Ash Wednesday two years ago, and the reference to the older generation being the "last Catholic generation" is true. No one attends Mass, except for older people. The reverence for Catholicism is still there, but the moral values are not. Most churches in Rome are a tourist destination; pews, kneelers and even (the much reviled by traddies) chairs have been removed. Tourists pass through with their maps and attend the concerts, but no one stops by for Mass.

Badger Catholic said...

For a 1,000 years the greatest Church in Christendom was not St. Peters Basilica in Rome, but Holy Wisdom (Haggia Sophia) Basilica in Constantinople, cathedral of the Patriarch second only to the Pope in prestige. In 1453 Constantinople became Istanbul, and Haggia Sophia became a mosque.

http://www.crossroadsinitiative.com/library_article/1174/Will_St._Peters_Basilica_become_a_Mosque_.html

Virginia Zignego said...

Randomly awesome comment.

Badger Catholic said...

LOL, the point being it could happen again. Fantastic!

Badger Catholic said...

I think folks would get a pretty good kick out of some of our email chains.

Anonymous said...

Yes that notion of, "once a society drops to 1.2 replacement rate, their is no chance of recovering." I don't get that. I mean yes a society can enter into a period of lengthy decline, but I would just have to think that after several generations it does rebound.

Also the idea of "no one attends Mass" except the old people, surely that can't be 100% correct? I mean one can still find young people at Mass in Paris or Berlin, sure not a ton of them, but still enough to be the "creative minority."

Anyway only old ladies at Church, that's what they said about Russia 20 years ago. Now the city of Moscow is building something like 300 new parishes, rebirth of faith is always possible.

As per the Muslims, it is very likely that they are just as much on track for secularization as the Europeans.

Virginia Zignego said...

I don't argue there is somewhat of a rebirth going on. I have heard there is a great revival in France with the Latin Mass. However, the question here is -- Italy doesn't have 100 years for a revival. A generation or two will be too late. A critical period is upon Italy now regarding their immigration numbers and Muslims continuing to have large families. I may write more about this later...

Three articles of interest:
1. This, from the NYT, specifically about Italy and the declining birth rate: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/29/magazine/29Birth-t.html
2. Obv Wikipedia isn't a citable source, but this is a pretty comprehensive review of all the theories out there : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sub-replacement_fertility
3. CFAM (a conservative, pro-life org) wrote about this in 2008: http://www.c-fam.org/docLib/20100217_Managing_European_Dem._Decline.pdf

Brian A Cook said...

What about the high costs of living?

Virginia Zignego said...

Taxes are high, yes... but if there were more Italian babies being born, the cost of supporting pensions and healthcare for the elderly would not fall on the shoulders of one-child families (ie, you have one child that will have to support the pensions and healthcare costs of his/her two parents.)25% of Italian women are childless, and another 25% have one child.

Social scientists speculate that one of the causes of the low birth rate is a (relatively) new consumerist mentality that holds the acquisition of goods to be the higher social goal than family. Expensive gifts like cars, motorini and electronics are considered the norm and it is considered impossible to provide these comforts for more than one or two children.