"[Trump] quickly earned the trust that so many of those voters had lost in other fixtures of America — not just in its leaders, but in institutions like Congress, the Federal Reserve and the big-money campaign finance system that Mr. Trump has repudiated, as well as in corporations, the Roman Catholic Church and the news media."
Showing posts with label Republicans. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Republicans. Show all posts
Loss of trust and the unraveling of institutions
Patrick Healy and Jonathan Martin's analysis in The New York Times of why and how the
Republican Party Unravels Over Donald Trump’s Takeover includes this.
GOP debate in Milwaukee tomorrow
The moderators of Tuesday's Republican presidential debate in Milwaukee are hoping to deliver something serious but not dull, tough but not snarky, compelling but not stagy.
"I'm not interested in a fight. I'm interested in a conversation about moving the needle on growth, about moving the needle on jobs," says Maria Bartiromo, Fox Business Network anchor.
"This will be the fourth debate and we still don't have a clear idea how these guys plan to deal with the most important issue on voters' minds — and that is jobs," she says.
After a firestorm over the last GOP debate on CNBC on Oct. 28, the rival Fox financial network hopes to put its own stamp on the debate season.
The network has run ads jabbing CNBC for not asking "the real questions" and is promising to deliver Tuesday "the real debate on our economy."
Fox Business anchor Neil Cavuto says "there were lot of very fine questions in (the CNBC) debate" but that viewers didn't feel like they got the meaty economic discussion they expected.
There will be "only" eight GOP candidates in the two-hour prime time debate at the Milwaukee Theatre. That is still a big number. But it could make the conversation more manageable after debates that have featured 10 or 11 people on stage competing for scarce talking time.continue at JS
Reviewing Our Predictions for Election 2014
Last month, I posted my predictions for the 2014 midterm elections. With the final Senate seat being decided in a runoff election this past weekend, it seems like a good time to revisit those predictions to see how we did.
The general consensus was that we'd see a strong Republican showing. I went a little further out on a limb, projecting the GOP to outperform state-by-state polling data. Reality was even more of Republican win.
Pre-Prediction Prediction
While this doesn't necessarily count as an election prediction, I wrote "I know Mitch McConnell promised that a Republican majority in the Senate will kill Obamacare. I've heard that line before. The GOP promises big things before an election. After the election, there's no tough decision that can't be delayed indefinitely."
Senate Majority Elect Mitch McConnell didn't even wait for the new Congress to be sworn in before backing off of that promise, saying that our hopes for repeal come from the Supreme Court "as opposed to actually getting the president to sign a full repeal, which is not likely to happen..."
Shocker.
Prediction #1: Walker: 51%, Burke: 49%
Result: Walker 52%, Burke, 47%
Well, I was right in predicting the winner, but off a few percent as Walker pulled out nearly a six point victory. It wouldn't be the only time the GOP outperformed the polls on election night.
Prediction #2: "I'll also predict that the GOP pulls off the attorney general race and narrowly expands the majority in the Legislature."
Result: The Republicans picked up two seats in the Senate and three in the Assembly.
We nailed this one.
Prediction #3: "...the Republicans pick up an even 10 seats in the House of Representatives."
Result: The Republicans picked up a dozen seats in the House for their biggest advantage since the Truman Administration. There is the opportunity to claim a 13th seat pending a recall election in Arizona.
Not bad, not bad!
Prediction #4: "...the GOP wins Louisiana, Georgia, Colorado, Iowa, Alaska and Kansas for a 53 seat majority in the next Congress."
Result: The GOP picked up all those seats, plus North Carolina, to win a 54 seat majority.
Perhaps the most interesting part of my prediction was this:
Rationale #1: "Well, that's not a very bold prediction, Karlen. You're just telling us what the polls are telling us!"
Yes, my analysis was heavily based on polling data, which I have long (correctly) argued is incredibly reliable on predicting elections. While my poll-based projections turned out to be quite accurate (as you'll see above), I think one of the most interesting aspects of this election is that the polls were way off in the magnitude of the GOP landslide.
For example, the polls and I predicted a two point Walker win. We look correct for getting the winner right, even though the final margin was nearly four points greater than the projection. If we miss by four points the other way, Mary Burke is the governor-elect, and we look like idiots. We might have gotten lucky.
So has polling broken down? Are response trends now too unpredictable that there's no way to use public opinion surveys to accurately gauge elections? That, my friends, is themillion billion dollar question that we'll need at least another two years to answer.
Rationale #2: "One party usually takes home 70-80% of the tossup seats....That means that either the Democrats sandbag their losses, take a majority of the tossups and save their Senate majority or the GOP heads into 2015 with a stronger-than-expected majority."
If there's one thing I got right, it's the paragraph above.
Exit Prediction #1: Hillary will not be the next president of the United States.
Exit Prediction #2: Right now you're quietly cursing me for this subtle reminder that we've got two years of NONSTOP speculation, advertising and chatter about the 2016 presidential election.
The general consensus was that we'd see a strong Republican showing. I went a little further out on a limb, projecting the GOP to outperform state-by-state polling data. Reality was even more of Republican win.
Pre-Prediction Prediction
While this doesn't necessarily count as an election prediction, I wrote "I know Mitch McConnell promised that a Republican majority in the Senate will kill Obamacare. I've heard that line before. The GOP promises big things before an election. After the election, there's no tough decision that can't be delayed indefinitely."
Senate Majority Elect Mitch McConnell didn't even wait for the new Congress to be sworn in before backing off of that promise, saying that our hopes for repeal come from the Supreme Court "as opposed to actually getting the president to sign a full repeal, which is not likely to happen..."
Shocker.
Prediction #1: Walker: 51%, Burke: 49%
Result: Walker 52%, Burke, 47%
Well, I was right in predicting the winner, but off a few percent as Walker pulled out nearly a six point victory. It wouldn't be the only time the GOP outperformed the polls on election night.
Prediction #2: "I'll also predict that the GOP pulls off the attorney general race and narrowly expands the majority in the Legislature."
Result: The Republicans picked up two seats in the Senate and three in the Assembly.
We nailed this one.
Prediction #3: "...the Republicans pick up an even 10 seats in the House of Representatives."
Result: The Republicans picked up a dozen seats in the House for their biggest advantage since the Truman Administration. There is the opportunity to claim a 13th seat pending a recall election in Arizona.
Not bad, not bad!
Prediction #4: "...the GOP wins Louisiana, Georgia, Colorado, Iowa, Alaska and Kansas for a 53 seat majority in the next Congress."
Result: The GOP picked up all those seats, plus North Carolina, to win a 54 seat majority.
Perhaps the most interesting part of my prediction was this:
It turns out that this was almost exactly correct. One through seven went red (with a nail-biter putting North Carolina in the GOP column), and New Hampshire went blue in a closer than expected race. Missing from this race was Virginia--which I did not expect to be close. The GOP nearly pulled off an upset here.Those eight seats are as follows (ranked in order of how likely I think the Republicans are to win):
- Louisiana
- Georgia
- Colorado
- Iowa
- Alaska
- Kansas
- North Carolina
- New Hampshire
....If my estimation is correct, we will be able to draw a horizontal line somewhere on this list, and everything about will go red; everything below will go blue.
Rationale #1: "Well, that's not a very bold prediction, Karlen. You're just telling us what the polls are telling us!"
Yes, my analysis was heavily based on polling data, which I have long (correctly) argued is incredibly reliable on predicting elections. While my poll-based projections turned out to be quite accurate (as you'll see above), I think one of the most interesting aspects of this election is that the polls were way off in the magnitude of the GOP landslide.
For example, the polls and I predicted a two point Walker win. We look correct for getting the winner right, even though the final margin was nearly four points greater than the projection. If we miss by four points the other way, Mary Burke is the governor-elect, and we look like idiots. We might have gotten lucky.
So has polling broken down? Are response trends now too unpredictable that there's no way to use public opinion surveys to accurately gauge elections? That, my friends, is the
Rationale #2: "One party usually takes home 70-80% of the tossup seats....That means that either the Democrats sandbag their losses, take a majority of the tossups and save their Senate majority or the GOP heads into 2015 with a stronger-than-expected majority."
If there's one thing I got right, it's the paragraph above.
Exit Prediction #1: Hillary will not be the next president of the United States.
Exit Prediction #2: Right now you're quietly cursing me for this subtle reminder that we've got two years of NONSTOP speculation, advertising and chatter about the 2016 presidential election.
Predictions for Election 2014
Greetings, my friends, and a tremendous Monday to all of you. In case you haven't noticed the bevy of ugly election signs in everybody's front yard, we've got an election tomorrow--and EXTREMELY IMPORTANT election. It's the election of a lifetime that will determine the future of our great nation. It's absolutely critical!
Lector: Well, that's not a very bold prediction, Karlen. You're just telling us what the polls are telling us!
Dear reader, you are correct. And if I enter a March Madness bracket with you this spring, there's a pretty good bet I'll take all number one seeds in the Final Four. I've been the guy who nails all the first round upsets--12 seeds over 5 seeds all day, baby! But that's not what gets you paid. Sometimes the road less traveled is less traveled for a reason.
Looking at the data, I'm inclined to draw that line right around Alaska--possibly above it, but probably below it. But it's also true that states considered tossups usually don't split evenly as we might guess. One party usually takes home 70-80% of the tossup seats. I knew this in 2012, but I still hedged my bets and predicted that Romney would carry the swing states of Colorado and Virginia in 2012. In reality, he carried neither while also losing Florida in a total blowout.
I'm not playing it safe again. That means that either the Democrats sandbag their losses, take a majority of the tossups and save their Senate majority or the GOP heads into 2015 with a stronger-than-expected majority. Which way do we go?
Well, given how unpopular the president is, I really have a hard time seeing his party carry red states like Louisiana, Georgia or Alaska. While I'm reluctant to believe in the GOP in states like Colorado and Iowa, which have been trending blue, the polls have consistently shown the Republican in the lead.
At the same time, over the last decade, the Republicans have struggled to perform at the levels polling would indicate. I mentioned that the tossup states tend to fall overwhelmingly to one party or another. Well, the Cook Political Report has a chart out that shows the the tossups have gone to the Democrats overwhelmingly each of the last four elections--including the 2010 GOP landslide!
So which way do we go? Ultimately, I believe the Republicans have shown enough strength in the polls, that I'm going to predict the GOP wins Louisiana, Georgia, Colorado, Iowa, Alaska and Kansas for a 53 seat majority in the next Congress.
We'll check back in Wednesday morning to see how it all shook out.
Just kidding. I can't remember a national election that's had less significance than this one.
That's not to say you shouldn't vote; you should. And the governor's race here in the Badger State certainly matters. But a lot of the hand-wringing over control of the Senate is silly. If the Democrats keep control, they'll still have to deal with a Republican House. If the Republicans take over, the president will veto any conservative legislation that Congress passes. (And let's be honest, the odds of even a Republican Congress passing conservative legislation is infinitesimally small.)
I know Mitch McConnell promised that a Republican majority in the Senate will kill Obamacare. I've heard that line before. The GOP promises big things before an election. After the election, there's no tough decision that can't be delayed indefinitely.
Still, the political junkie in me can't help but to get excited on Election Day. I love watching the returns come in and analyzing who is winning, where, and why. And don't forget: Every time an incumbent loses, an angel gets his wings!
That said, let's make some predictions:
Wisconsin:
Walker: 51%
Burke: 49%
Lector: Well, that's not a very bold prediction, Karlen. You're just telling us what the polls are telling us!
Dear reader, you are correct. And if I enter a March Madness bracket with you this spring, there's a pretty good bet I'll take all number one seeds in the Final Four. I've been the guy who nails all the first round upsets--12 seeds over 5 seeds all day, baby! But that's not what gets you paid. Sometimes the road less traveled is less traveled for a reason.
I'll also predict that the GOP pulls off the attorney general race and narrowly expands the majority in the Legislature.
National:
I'm predicting the Republicans pick up an even 10 seats in the House of Representatives.
Now let's look where it's really interesting: the Senate. Just as we did when I accurately predicted the 2012 presidential election, we'll start with the RealClearPolitics.com map. As of my writing of this analysis, RCP had the Democrats likely owning 45 seats, the GOP 47, and eight toss-ups.
Those eight seats are as follows (ranked in order of how likely I think the Republicans are to win):
- Louisiana*
- Georgia*
- Colorado
- Iowa
- Alaska
- Kansas
- North Carolina
- New Hampshire
Louisiana and Georgia are three-way races, and there will be a runoff election between the top two candidates next month--unless one of them takes home a majority (50% plus one vote) tomorrow. I'll predict both of these races go to a runoff, with the GOP picking up both seats.
If my estimation is correct, we will be able to draw a horizontal line somewhere on this list, and everything about will go red; everything below will go blue.
If my estimation is correct, we will be able to draw a horizontal line somewhere on this list, and everything about will go red; everything below will go blue.
Looking at the data, I'm inclined to draw that line right around Alaska--possibly above it, but probably below it. But it's also true that states considered tossups usually don't split evenly as we might guess. One party usually takes home 70-80% of the tossup seats. I knew this in 2012, but I still hedged my bets and predicted that Romney would carry the swing states of Colorado and Virginia in 2012. In reality, he carried neither while also losing Florida in a total blowout.
I'm not playing it safe again. That means that either the Democrats sandbag their losses, take a majority of the tossups and save their Senate majority or the GOP heads into 2015 with a stronger-than-expected majority. Which way do we go?
Well, given how unpopular the president is, I really have a hard time seeing his party carry red states like Louisiana, Georgia or Alaska. While I'm reluctant to believe in the GOP in states like Colorado and Iowa, which have been trending blue, the polls have consistently shown the Republican in the lead.
At the same time, over the last decade, the Republicans have struggled to perform at the levels polling would indicate. I mentioned that the tossup states tend to fall overwhelmingly to one party or another. Well, the Cook Political Report has a chart out that shows the the tossups have gone to the Democrats overwhelmingly each of the last four elections--including the 2010 GOP landslide!
So which way do we go? Ultimately, I believe the Republicans have shown enough strength in the polls, that I'm going to predict the GOP wins Louisiana, Georgia, Colorado, Iowa, Alaska and Kansas for a 53 seat majority in the next Congress.
We'll check back in Wednesday morning to see how it all shook out.
In case you missed it, Cdl. Dolan's RNC benediction(video)
I thought it was exceptional. No chumminess. No minced words. Just a powerful and well worded prayer.
The text is available at his blog.
"Make us truly free, by tethering freedom to truth and ordering freedom to goodness."
Cdl Dolan now to offer prayer at both DNC and RNC
Cardinal Timothy M. Dolan of New York has accepted an invitation to deliver the closing prayer at next week’s Democratic National Convention, following through on a promise that he made when accepting the same role at the Republican convention.continue at New York Times
His appearance before the Democrats in Charlotte, N.C., which was announced Tuesday by the Roman Catholic Archdiocese of New York, may lead to one of the most intriguing tableaus of this convention season. Cardinal Dolan, an opponent of abortion and same-sex marriage who is among the Catholic bishops suing the Obama administration over its contraception health care mandates, will bless a gathering of thousands of delegates who passionately disagree with him.
Cardinal Dolan is scheduled to deliver the closing prayer at the Republican convention on Thursday night, after Mitt Romney accepts the nomination as the party’s presidential candidate. He had said that his appearance should not be seen as partisan and that he would accept an invitation to pray with the Democrats as well.
Photo
Wisconsin Senate GOPs lead effort to damage school voucher program
Madison - Wisconsin's school voucher programs could not move beyond Milwaukee and eastern Racine County, under a bill the state Senate approved Tuesday.MJS
Republicans in June included a provision in the state budget that established a voucher program in eastern Racine County and would put in place similar ones in other school districts when they met certain criteria.
Green Bay meets three of the four criteria for having a voucher program and is likely to meet all four soon. Some Republicans, led by Senate President Mike Ellis of Neenah, opposed expanding the voucher program beyond Milwaukee and Racine County and cut a deal this summer to prevent Green Bay or others from having voucher schools.
Ellis said Tuesday the change would ensure the Legislature decides which districts allow voucher schools, rather than having a formula automatically determine that.
"I want the Legislature to decide and I want the Legislature not to be hamstrung," he said.
The state's initial voucher program started 20 years ago and allows low-income students in Milwaukee to attend religious schools and other private institutions at taxpayer expense. Each voucher is worth $6,442 annually.
The budget expanded the program by eliminating a cap on the number of students who could participate, raising the income limits and allowing students from Milwaukee to attend private schools outside the city limits at taxpayer expense.
The budget also created a formula to establish voucher schools for second-class cities (which generally are those with populations from 39,000 to 149,999) that have 50% or more of their students eligible for free or reduced lunch and meet certain state aid requirements.
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