Reviewing Our Predictions for Election 2014

Last month, I posted my predictions for the 2014 midterm elections. With the final Senate seat being decided in a runoff election this past weekend, it seems like a good time to revisit those predictions to see how we did.

The general consensus was that we'd see a strong Republican showing. I went a little further out on a limb, projecting the GOP to outperform state-by-state polling data. Reality was even more of Republican win.

Pre-Prediction Prediction
While this doesn't necessarily count as an election prediction, I wrote "I know Mitch McConnell promised that a Republican majority in the Senate will kill Obamacare. I've heard that line before. The GOP promises big things before an election. After the election, there's no tough decision that can't be delayed indefinitely."

Senate Majority Elect Mitch McConnell didn't even wait for the new Congress to be sworn in before backing off of that promise, saying that our hopes for repeal come from the Supreme Court "as opposed to actually getting the president to sign a full repeal, which is not likely to happen..."

Shocker.

Prediction #1: Walker: 51%, Burke: 49%
Result: Walker 52%, Burke, 47%

Well, I was right in predicting the winner, but off a few percent as Walker pulled out nearly a six point victory. It wouldn't be the only time the GOP outperformed the polls on election night.

Prediction #2: "I'll also predict that the GOP pulls off the attorney general race and narrowly expands the majority in the Legislature."
Result: The Republicans picked up two seats in the Senate and three in the Assembly.

We nailed this one.

Prediction #3: "...the Republicans pick up an even 10 seats in the House of Representatives."
Result: The Republicans picked up a dozen seats in the House for their biggest advantage since the Truman Administration. There is the opportunity to claim a 13th seat pending a recall election in Arizona.

Not bad, not bad!

Prediction #4: "...the GOP wins Louisiana, Georgia, Colorado, Iowa, Alaska and Kansas for a 53 seat majority in the next Congress."
Result: The GOP picked up all those seats, plus North Carolina, to win a 54 seat majority.

Perhaps the most interesting part of my prediction was this:

Those eight seats are as follows (ranked in order of how likely I think the Republicans are to win):

1. Louisiana
2. Georgia
3. Colorado
4. Iowa
5. Alaska
6. Kansas
7. North Carolina
8. New Hampshire

....If my estimation is correct, we will be able to draw a horizontal line somewhere on this list, and everything about will go red; everything below will go blue. 

It turns out that this was almost exactly correct. One through seven went red (with a nail-biter putting North Carolina in the GOP column), and New Hampshire went blue in a closer than expected race. Missing from this race was Virginia--which I did not expect to be close. The GOP nearly pulled off an upset here.

Rationale #1:  "Well, that's not a very bold prediction, Karlen. You're just telling us what the polls are telling us!"

Yes, my analysis was heavily based on polling data, which I have long (correctly) argued is incredibly reliable on predicting elections. While my poll-based projections turned out to be quite accurate (as you'll see above), I think one of the most interesting aspects of this election is that the polls were way off in the magnitude of the GOP landslide.

For example, the polls and I predicted a two point Walker win. We look correct for getting the winner right, even though the final margin was nearly four points greater than the projection. If we miss by four points the other way, Mary Burke is the governor-elect, and we look like idiots. We might have gotten lucky.

So has polling broken down? Are response trends now too unpredictable that there's no way to use public opinion surveys to accurately gauge elections? That, my friends, is the million billion dollar question that we'll need at least another two years to answer.

Rationale #2: "One party usually takes home 70-80% of the tossup seats....That means that either the Democrats sandbag their losses, take a majority of the tossups and save their Senate majority or the GOP heads into 2015 with a stronger-than-expected majority."

If there's one thing I got right, it's the paragraph above.

Exit Prediction #1: Hillary will not be the next president of the United States.
Exit Prediction #2: Right now you're quietly cursing me for this subtle reminder that we've got two years of NONSTOP speculation, advertising and chatter about the 2016 presidential election.

Predictions for Election 2014

Greetings, my friends, and a tremendous Monday to all of you. In case you haven't noticed the bevy of ugly election signs in everybody's front yard, we've got an election tomorrow--and EXTREMELY IMPORTANT election. It's the election of a lifetime that will determine the future of our great nation. It's absolutely critical!

Just kidding. I can't remember a national election that's had less significance than this one.

That's not to say you shouldn't vote; you should. And the governor's race here in the Badger State certainly matters. But a lot of the hand-wringing over control of the Senate is silly. If the Democrats keep control, they'll still have to deal with a Republican House. If the Republicans take over, the president will veto any conservative legislation that Congress passes. (And let's be honest, the odds of even a Republican Congress passing conservative legislation is infinitesimally small.) 

I know Mitch McConnell promised that a Republican majority in the Senate will kill Obamacare. I've heard that line before. The GOP promises big things before an election. After the election, there's no tough decision that can't be delayed indefinitely.

Still, the political junkie in me can't help but to get excited on Election Day. I love watching the returns come in and analyzing who is winning, where, and why. And don't forget: Every time an incumbent loses, an angel gets his wings!

That said, let's make some predictions:

Wisconsin:

Walker: 51%

Burke: 49%

Lector: Well, that's not a very bold prediction, Karlen. You're just telling us what the polls are telling us!

Dear reader, you are correct. And if I enter a March Madness bracket with you this spring, there's a pretty good bet I'll take all number one seeds in the Final Four. I've been the guy who nails all the first round upsets--12 seeds over 5 seeds all day, baby! But that's not what gets you paid. Sometimes the road less traveled is less traveled for a reason.

I'll also predict that the GOP pulls off the attorney general race and narrowly expands the majority in the Legislature.

National:

I'm predicting the Republicans pick up an even 10 seats in the House of Representatives.

Now let's look where it's really interesting: the Senate. Just as we did when I accurately predicted the 2012 presidential election, we'll start with the RealClearPolitics.com map. As of my writing of this analysis, RCP had the Democrats likely owning 45 seats, the GOP 47, and eight toss-ups. 

Those eight seats are as follows (ranked in order of how likely I think the Republicans are to win):

1. Louisiana*
2. Georgia*
3. Colorado
4. Iowa
5. Alaska
6. Kansas
7. North Carolina
8. New Hampshire

Louisiana and Georgia are three-way races, and there will be a runoff election between the top two candidates next month--unless one of them takes home a majority (50% plus one vote) tomorrow. I'll predict both of these races go to a runoff, with the GOP picking up both seats.

If my estimation is correct, we will be able to draw a horizontal line somewhere on this list, and everything about will go red; everything below will go blue. 

Looking at the data, I'm inclined to draw that line right around Alaska--possibly above it, but probably below it. But it's also true that states considered tossups usually don't split evenly as we might guess. One party usually takes home 70-80% of the tossup seats. I knew this in 2012, but I still hedged my bets and predicted that Romney would carry the swing states of Colorado and Virginia in 2012. In reality, he carried neither while also losing Florida in a total blowout.

I'm not playing it safe again. That means that either the Democrats sandbag their losses, take a majority of the tossups and save their Senate majority or the GOP heads into 2015 with a stronger-than-expected majority. Which way do we go?

Well, given how unpopular the president is, I really have a hard time seeing his party carry red states like Louisiana, Georgia or Alaska. While I'm reluctant to believe in the GOP in states like Colorado and Iowa, which have been trending blue, the polls have consistently shown the Republican in the lead.

At the same time, over the last decade, the Republicans have struggled to perform at the levels polling would indicate. I mentioned that the tossup states tend to fall overwhelmingly to one party or another. Well, the Cook Political Report has a chart out that shows the the tossups have gone to the Democrats overwhelmingly each of the last four elections--including the 2010 GOP landslide!

So which way do we go? Ultimately, I believe the Republicans have shown enough strength in the polls, that I'm going to predict the GOP wins Louisiana, Georgia, Colorado, Iowa, Alaska and Kansas for a 53 seat majority in the next Congress.

We'll check back in Wednesday morning to see how it all shook out. 

Primary election in Wisconsin tomorrow

This Tuesday, February 19, is the Spring Nonpartisan Primary Election in Wisconsin. The only statewide race with a primary is for the Wisconsin Supreme Court. Justice Patience (Pat) Roggensack is being challenged by two candidates, all vying for a 10-year term on the state's high court. The primary will narrow the candidates from 3 to 2. (You will vote for only ONE candidate on the primary ballot.)

Click here for educational information on the judicial candidates.

ENDORSEMENTS
Wisconsin Family Action PAC (Political Action Committee) has endorsed 98th Assembly candidates Jeanne Tarantino and Matt Morzy for the Spring 2013 Primary Election.

WFA-PAC 2/13/2013 press release:
"We are very pleased to endorse candidates who recognize the importance of Wisconsin's best natural resource - her traditional families - and who realize that our state's well-being is closely tied to the strength of this resource."

Click here for WFA-PAC endorsements for the 98th Assembly district.

Wisconsin Family Action

details on voting at Voter Information Center

I saw this note on the WI Supreme Court primary

Feb. 19 is a critical day for Wisconsin’s future. That is the day of the primary election for Wisconsin State Court Justice Pat Roggensack. Two radical left-wing candidates have vowed to end the career of incumbent Roggensack. These two obstructionists both sighed recall petitions to get rid of Gov. Scott Walker. When they couldn’t beat Walker at the ballot box they decided to beat him on the bench.

If these two anti-Walker candidates eliminate Roggensack, they will do everything in their power to stop the progress Walker and the Republican legislators have accomplished. They are anti-pro-life, against economic development, against voter ID, and against Act 10.

Typically, these primaries have a very low voter turnout. That is what the liberals are counting on. If you stand with Walker, then vote for conservative Justice Pat Roggensack on Feb. 19.

Fallone(one of the bad ones) teaches at Marquette and also is President of Wisconsin Stem Cell Now, a liberal embryonic stem cell advocacy lobby.  I will vote Roggensack to keep a dipstick like Fallone off the bench. 

Vote today in final WI recall elections

Six months of hugely contentious and massively expensive political warfare reaches its conclusion Tuesday, with the final elections of the 2011 state Senate recall saga.

Democrats will find out if they'll hold onto the gains they made last week in the Wisconsin Senate. Republicans will learn if they can reclaim some of the political momentum they grabbed in last November's midterm elections.

The races don't hold quite the drama they would have if Democrats had won a Senate majority last week and were fighting to keep it Tuesday. They won two recall races in six GOP-controlled districts; they needed three to control the body.

Still, the 17-16 Republican edge in the Senate, established last Tuesday, could force compromises between the two parties to get legislation passed. And that could morph into a firmer 18-15 majority, or even back to 19-14, if one or both Democratic incumbents are defeated.

more at MJS

Both of the GOP candidates are strongly pro-life. 

Something to keep in mind

Catholic Posters

VOTE: Special Assembly elections tomorrow – Don’t forget to vote!

Special general elections will be held tomorrow May 3 for three vacant state Assembly seats left by Republicans joining the Walker Administration: former Rep. Mike Huebsch of the 94th Assembly District left to serve as Secretary of the Department of Administration (DOA); former Rep. Mark Gottlieb of the 60th Assembly District left to serve as the Secretary of the Department of Transportation (DOT); and former Rep. Scott Gunderson of the 83rd Assembly District left to serve as Executive Assistant of the Department of Natural Resources (DNR).

The Pro-Life Wisconsin Victory Fund political action committee (PAC) has proudly endorsed the following candidates in tomorrow’s special general elections:
60^th Assembly District (portions of Ozaukee and Washington counties):

• Duey Stroebel

83^rd Assembly District (portions of Waukesha, Walworth, and Racine counties):

• Dave Craig

94th Assembly District (portions of Monroe and La Crosse counties):

• John Lautz

For those of you who live in the 60^th, 83^rd and 94th Assembly Districts, tomorrow’s special elections are too important to miss. Plan to exercise your right to vote tomorrow, May 3, and encourage your family and friends to do the same. Vote for life, and may God bless Wisconsin!

Pro-Life Wisconsin

Forward the info on!

Special Assembly elections tomorrow — Don’t forget to vote!

Special primary elections will be held tomorrow April 5 for three vacant state Assembly seats left by Republicans joining the Walker Administration: former Rep. Mike Huebsch of the 94th Assembly District left to serve as Secretary of the Department of Administration (DOA); former Rep. Mark Gottlieb of the 60th Assembly District left to serve as the Secretary of the Department of Transportation (DOT); and former Rep. Scott Gunderson of the 83rd Assembly District left to serve as Executive Assistant of the Department of Natural Resources (DNR). The special general election for these three vacant seats will be held May 3rd. The Pro-Life Wisconsin Victory Fund political action committee (PAC) has proudly endorsed the following candidates in tomorrow’s special primary elections:

60th Assembly District (portions of Ozaukee and Washington counties):
• Jake Curtis
• Rik Kluessendorf
• Paul Melotik
• Tim Schwister
• John Soper
• Duey Stroebel
• Gary Wickert

94th Assembly District (portions of Monroe and La Crosse counties):
• John Lautz

The 83rd Assembly District (portions of Waukesha, Walworth, and Racine counties) does not have a Republican primary election. In the May 3 general election, lone Republican candidate Dave Craig will face the winner of tomorrow’s Democratic primary election. The PLW Victory Fund PAC has endorsed Dave Craig.

For those of you who live in the 60th and 94th Assembly Districts, tomorrow’s special primary elections are too important to miss. Plan to exercise your right to vote tomorrow, April 5, and encourage your family and friends to do the same. Vote for life, and may God bless Wisconsin!

Pro-Life Wisconsin

And of course a vote for David Prosser is a vote for Life!

Photo

Taxpayers funding Kloppenburg camaign for WI Supreme Court

Got this email over the weekend and thought worth sharing:

The liberals are continuing to agitate under the control of the unions who are fighting for their life. Check out the text of this email I received which contains text of an email that was sent using the taxpayer supported school email system and servers!

Below is text of an email I'm seeing on official school district email - the teachers are in organized opposition to Prosser.

"JoAnn Kloppenburg will be in Eau Claire at one event; Thursday at 5:00 at Infinitea, on Grand near the bridge. Try to pack the place. ( The events at the Senior Center and Labor Temple are not happening).
Welcome Home Senator Vinehout Rally. Saturday morning, 10:00, at Phoenix Park.Make it big and make it loud! She will speak in support of Kloppenburg.
At the rally, we will circulate sign-up sheets for canvassing for Kloppenburg. Two hour shifts Saturday & Sunday, noon and 3:00. Also the following two weekends, 9am, noon, & 3pm.Maps will be available for the routes in heavily democratic wards."


We MUST get the word out for Justice Prosser. Due to the fact that his is a publicly funded campaign HE IS NOT ASKING FOR DONATIONS! Can you imagine? He's not asking you for money, only a bit of your time. Will you step up to the plate to protect our State Supreme Court from being taken over by liberal activist jurists?

Get ready for a stolen election in one week

Abortion proponents and wealthy union bosses will be out in full force for the election April 5 for the Supreme Court.  Community organizers will be in nursing homes, group homes, ect, pulling out everybody and anybody to vote for pro-abortion JoAnne Kloppenburg.  One of those funding Kloppenburg's campaign is the executive director of NARAL Pro Choice Wisconsin, a radical pro abortion group that describes itself as the “political arm” of the pro-abortion movement.  Kloppenburg is making baseless claims against Justice Prosse, which we might as well just call lies.  Pro-abortion Kloppenburg has found an ally in money-hungry union bosses.  In return for election, Kloppenburg could legally rule against state taxpayers and their representatives and turn the court into a 4-3 majority not only for abortion, but to put taxpayers into submission of the powerful public union interests.  Remember, the public sector unions are also fiercely pro-abortion and they will find a natural ally with Kloppenburg on the bench.  We could see pregnancy centers shut down and the state begging for federal bailouts like California.

Spread the word, vote Prosser April 5th!

(by the way, I know Democrat operatives go into nursing homes to bring residents to polling places and then "help" them vote for the right candidate.  They did so to my own grandmother.  They made her vote for pro-abortion candidates until my mother found out and raised a stink.  She's suffered severely from Huntington's for something like 15 years and does not have most control over her faculties.  She was taken advantage of.)

Justice Prosser attack ads heat up as election approaches April 5

A victim of Father John Patrick Feeney's sexual abuse in the 1970s writes that he's upset with an ad criticizing Supreme Court Justice David Prosser's decision not to pursue charges against Feeney when Prosser was Outagamie County District Attorney.

Troy J. Merryfield, who now lives in Suffolk, Va., released a statement Friday that says the ad by the Greater Wisconsin Committee is "offensive, inaccurate and out of context" and that he would actually vote for Prosser if he was a Wisconsin resident. He wrote that he wanted the group to remove the ad from the airwaves.

Three years ago, Merryfield was critical of Prosser, saying he should step aside when cases involving priest sexual misconduct come before the high court.

"He knows damn well what happened and what was said," Merryfield said at the time. "He dropped the ball, and he should recuse himself."

In his formal statement Friday, Merryfield wrote that Prosser chose not to file charges against Feeney because of his concern about the emotional turmoil that a trial could have had on him. Merryfield also writes that Prosser received assurances from the Green Bay diocese that administrative action would be taken against Feeney.

The Greater Wisconsin Committee said it stood by the statements made in the ad, which they said "are supported by newspaper accounts and material gathered during the prosecution of Feeney."

JSOnline

Greater Wisconsin is a pro-abortion front group.  They think if they get a liberal judge, they can then overrule everything Gov. Walker is doing(including pro-life legislation).  Since liberal judges do not make rulings on the actual law of the land but on their own political interests, this probably would happen.  Remember to vote Prosser on April 5th.  Make sure to remind folks to vote.

Don't forget to vote tomorrow Feb 15th

The Wisconsin Right to Life Political Action Committee (WRTL/PAC) has endorsed Justice David  Prosser for re-election to the State Supreme Court.

In commenting on the endorsement of Justice Prosser, WRTL/PAC Director Susan Armacost said, "Our organization is proud to endorse Justice David Prosser for re-election to our state's highest court. Justice Prosser is a highly respected jurist whose judicial philosophy focuses on interpreting the Constitution, not making law. David Prosser has served the State Supreme Court with great distinction and richly deserves to be re-elected."

You can support Justice David Prosser with your vote in the Primary Election on Tuesday, February 15 and again in the General Election on Tuesday, April 5.

Wis RTL

WRTL endorses Justice David Prosser for re-election

A statewide pro-life group in Wisconsin says voters should re-elect David Prosser to his current position on the Wisconsin Supreme Court. With high court races not usually occupying the attention of voters, having the support of the pro-life community could make the difference in the election.

There are three candidates vying to replace Justice David Prosser, who was appointed to the court in 1998. JoAnne Kloppenburg, an assistant attorney general, Marla Stephens, head of the appellate division in the state Public Defenders office, and Joel Winnig, a Madison attorney, are seeking to replace him.

But the Wisconsin Right to Life Political Action Committee says Prosser deserves to be re-elected.

“Our organization is proud to endorse Justice David Prosser for re-election to our state’s highest court,” WRTL legislative director Susan Armacost told LifeNews.com on Thursday.

“Justice Prosser is a highly respected jurist whose judicial philosophy focuses on interpreting the Constitution, not making law. David Prosser has served the State Supreme Court with great distinction and richly deserves to be re-elected,” she said.

Prosser has described himself as a judicial conservative and an impartial judge while the candidates seeking to replace him have not sided themselves with those who favor the rule of law as opposed to legislative from the bench — the key problem in the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision in roe v. Wade that allowed virtually unlimited abortions and 53 million abortions since 1973.

Prosser has also touted his time as the former GOP Assembly speaker and said he is looking forward to preserving the common-sense majority on the current court — something that Kloppenburg and Stephens have condemned.

The primary election for the Wisconsin Supreme Court will take place on February 15 and the race is important because the elected justice will hold that position for 10 years. Prosser has a great deal of experience and has participated in more than 900 published Supreme Court decisions.

 LifeSite