National Review: Reparations for Milwaukee?

How about giving it a functional high school.

For years, I have argued that the two major political parties should host their conventions year after year in the same cities, choosing two that truly represent the vision of each party.

For the Republicans, that would mean some place such as Indian Wells., Calif., or The Woodlands, Texas. Indian Wells is the second-most-Republican jurisdiction in California (behind Villa Park, as of last year), a place full of gated communities, beautiful golf courses, and rich old white people. The Woodlands is pretty rich and white, too, a suburb distantly in the orbit of a much more populous, diverse, and badly governed city run by Democrats.

continue at National Review

Very interesting insights on the public schools.

Reviewing Our Predictions for Election 2014

Last month, I posted my predictions for the 2014 midterm elections. With the final Senate seat being decided in a runoff election this past weekend, it seems like a good time to revisit those predictions to see how we did.

The general consensus was that we'd see a strong Republican showing. I went a little further out on a limb, projecting the GOP to outperform state-by-state polling data. Reality was even more of Republican win.

Pre-Prediction Prediction
While this doesn't necessarily count as an election prediction, I wrote "I know Mitch McConnell promised that a Republican majority in the Senate will kill Obamacare. I've heard that line before. The GOP promises big things before an election. After the election, there's no tough decision that can't be delayed indefinitely."

Senate Majority Elect Mitch McConnell didn't even wait for the new Congress to be sworn in before backing off of that promise, saying that our hopes for repeal come from the Supreme Court "as opposed to actually getting the president to sign a full repeal, which is not likely to happen..."

Shocker.

Prediction #1: Walker: 51%, Burke: 49%
Result: Walker 52%, Burke, 47%

Well, I was right in predicting the winner, but off a few percent as Walker pulled out nearly a six point victory. It wouldn't be the only time the GOP outperformed the polls on election night.

Prediction #2: "I'll also predict that the GOP pulls off the attorney general race and narrowly expands the majority in the Legislature."
Result: The Republicans picked up two seats in the Senate and three in the Assembly.

We nailed this one.

Prediction #3: "...the Republicans pick up an even 10 seats in the House of Representatives."
Result: The Republicans picked up a dozen seats in the House for their biggest advantage since the Truman Administration. There is the opportunity to claim a 13th seat pending a recall election in Arizona.

Not bad, not bad!

Prediction #4: "...the GOP wins Louisiana, Georgia, Colorado, Iowa, Alaska and Kansas for a 53 seat majority in the next Congress."
Result: The GOP picked up all those seats, plus North Carolina, to win a 54 seat majority.

Perhaps the most interesting part of my prediction was this:

Those eight seats are as follows (ranked in order of how likely I think the Republicans are to win):

1. Louisiana
2. Georgia
3. Colorado
4. Iowa
5. Alaska
6. Kansas
7. North Carolina
8. New Hampshire

....If my estimation is correct, we will be able to draw a horizontal line somewhere on this list, and everything about will go red; everything below will go blue. 

It turns out that this was almost exactly correct. One through seven went red (with a nail-biter putting North Carolina in the GOP column), and New Hampshire went blue in a closer than expected race. Missing from this race was Virginia--which I did not expect to be close. The GOP nearly pulled off an upset here.

Rationale #1:  "Well, that's not a very bold prediction, Karlen. You're just telling us what the polls are telling us!"

Yes, my analysis was heavily based on polling data, which I have long (correctly) argued is incredibly reliable on predicting elections. While my poll-based projections turned out to be quite accurate (as you'll see above), I think one of the most interesting aspects of this election is that the polls were way off in the magnitude of the GOP landslide.

For example, the polls and I predicted a two point Walker win. We look correct for getting the winner right, even though the final margin was nearly four points greater than the projection. If we miss by four points the other way, Mary Burke is the governor-elect, and we look like idiots. We might have gotten lucky.

So has polling broken down? Are response trends now too unpredictable that there's no way to use public opinion surveys to accurately gauge elections? That, my friends, is the million billion dollar question that we'll need at least another two years to answer.

Rationale #2: "One party usually takes home 70-80% of the tossup seats....That means that either the Democrats sandbag their losses, take a majority of the tossups and save their Senate majority or the GOP heads into 2015 with a stronger-than-expected majority."

If there's one thing I got right, it's the paragraph above.

Exit Prediction #1: Hillary will not be the next president of the United States.
Exit Prediction #2: Right now you're quietly cursing me for this subtle reminder that we've got two years of NONSTOP speculation, advertising and chatter about the 2016 presidential election.

Predictions for Election 2014

Greetings, my friends, and a tremendous Monday to all of you. In case you haven't noticed the bevy of ugly election signs in everybody's front yard, we've got an election tomorrow--and EXTREMELY IMPORTANT election. It's the election of a lifetime that will determine the future of our great nation. It's absolutely critical!

Just kidding. I can't remember a national election that's had less significance than this one.

That's not to say you shouldn't vote; you should. And the governor's race here in the Badger State certainly matters. But a lot of the hand-wringing over control of the Senate is silly. If the Democrats keep control, they'll still have to deal with a Republican House. If the Republicans take over, the president will veto any conservative legislation that Congress passes. (And let's be honest, the odds of even a Republican Congress passing conservative legislation is infinitesimally small.) 

I know Mitch McConnell promised that a Republican majority in the Senate will kill Obamacare. I've heard that line before. The GOP promises big things before an election. After the election, there's no tough decision that can't be delayed indefinitely.

Still, the political junkie in me can't help but to get excited on Election Day. I love watching the returns come in and analyzing who is winning, where, and why. And don't forget: Every time an incumbent loses, an angel gets his wings!

That said, let's make some predictions:

Wisconsin:

Walker: 51%

Burke: 49%

Lector: Well, that's not a very bold prediction, Karlen. You're just telling us what the polls are telling us!

Dear reader, you are correct. And if I enter a March Madness bracket with you this spring, there's a pretty good bet I'll take all number one seeds in the Final Four. I've been the guy who nails all the first round upsets--12 seeds over 5 seeds all day, baby! But that's not what gets you paid. Sometimes the road less traveled is less traveled for a reason.

I'll also predict that the GOP pulls off the attorney general race and narrowly expands the majority in the Legislature.

National:

I'm predicting the Republicans pick up an even 10 seats in the House of Representatives.

Now let's look where it's really interesting: the Senate. Just as we did when I accurately predicted the 2012 presidential election, we'll start with the RealClearPolitics.com map. As of my writing of this analysis, RCP had the Democrats likely owning 45 seats, the GOP 47, and eight toss-ups. 

Those eight seats are as follows (ranked in order of how likely I think the Republicans are to win):

1. Louisiana*
2. Georgia*
3. Colorado
4. Iowa
5. Alaska
6. Kansas
7. North Carolina
8. New Hampshire

Louisiana and Georgia are three-way races, and there will be a runoff election between the top two candidates next month--unless one of them takes home a majority (50% plus one vote) tomorrow. I'll predict both of these races go to a runoff, with the GOP picking up both seats.

If my estimation is correct, we will be able to draw a horizontal line somewhere on this list, and everything about will go red; everything below will go blue. 

Looking at the data, I'm inclined to draw that line right around Alaska--possibly above it, but probably below it. But it's also true that states considered tossups usually don't split evenly as we might guess. One party usually takes home 70-80% of the tossup seats. I knew this in 2012, but I still hedged my bets and predicted that Romney would carry the swing states of Colorado and Virginia in 2012. In reality, he carried neither while also losing Florida in a total blowout.

I'm not playing it safe again. That means that either the Democrats sandbag their losses, take a majority of the tossups and save their Senate majority or the GOP heads into 2015 with a stronger-than-expected majority. Which way do we go?

Well, given how unpopular the president is, I really have a hard time seeing his party carry red states like Louisiana, Georgia or Alaska. While I'm reluctant to believe in the GOP in states like Colorado and Iowa, which have been trending blue, the polls have consistently shown the Republican in the lead.

At the same time, over the last decade, the Republicans have struggled to perform at the levels polling would indicate. I mentioned that the tossup states tend to fall overwhelmingly to one party or another. Well, the Cook Political Report has a chart out that shows the the tossups have gone to the Democrats overwhelmingly each of the last four elections--including the 2010 GOP landslide!

So which way do we go? Ultimately, I believe the Republicans have shown enough strength in the polls, that I'm going to predict the GOP wins Louisiana, Georgia, Colorado, Iowa, Alaska and Kansas for a 53 seat majority in the next Congress.

We'll check back in Wednesday morning to see how it all shook out. 

Cdl. Dolan at DNC benediction "Grant us the courage to defend life"

Video and Text:

Cdl Dolan now to offer prayer at both DNC and RNC

Cardinal Timothy M. Dolan of New York has accepted an invitation to deliver the closing prayer at next week’s Democratic National Convention, following through on a promise that he made when accepting the same role at the Republican convention.

His appearance before the Democrats in Charlotte, N.C., which was announced Tuesday by the Roman Catholic Archdiocese of New York, may lead to one of the most intriguing tableaus of this convention season. Cardinal Dolan, an opponent of abortion and same-sex marriage who is among the Catholic bishops suing the Obama administration over its contraception health care mandates, will bless a gathering of thousands of delegates who passionately disagree with him.

Cardinal Dolan is scheduled to deliver the closing prayer at the Republican convention on Thursday night, after Mitt Romney accepts the nomination as the party’s presidential candidate. He had said that his appearance should not be seen as partisan and that he would accept an invitation to pray with the Democrats as well.

continue at New York Times

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