Reviewing Our Predictions for Election 2014

Last month, I posted my predictions for the 2014 midterm elections. With the final Senate seat being decided in a runoff election this past weekend, it seems like a good time to revisit those predictions to see how we did.

The general consensus was that we'd see a strong Republican showing. I went a little further out on a limb, projecting the GOP to outperform state-by-state polling data. Reality was even more of Republican win.

Pre-Prediction Prediction
While this doesn't necessarily count as an election prediction, I wrote "I know Mitch McConnell promised that a Republican majority in the Senate will kill Obamacare. I've heard that line before. The GOP promises big things before an election. After the election, there's no tough decision that can't be delayed indefinitely."

Senate Majority Elect Mitch McConnell didn't even wait for the new Congress to be sworn in before backing off of that promise, saying that our hopes for repeal come from the Supreme Court "as opposed to actually getting the president to sign a full repeal, which is not likely to happen..."

Shocker.

Prediction #1: Walker: 51%, Burke: 49%
Result: Walker 52%, Burke, 47%

Well, I was right in predicting the winner, but off a few percent as Walker pulled out nearly a six point victory. It wouldn't be the only time the GOP outperformed the polls on election night.

Prediction #2: "I'll also predict that the GOP pulls off the attorney general race and narrowly expands the majority in the Legislature."
Result: The Republicans picked up two seats in the Senate and three in the Assembly.

We nailed this one.

Prediction #3: "...the Republicans pick up an even 10 seats in the House of Representatives."
Result: The Republicans picked up a dozen seats in the House for their biggest advantage since the Truman Administration. There is the opportunity to claim a 13th seat pending a recall election in Arizona.

Not bad, not bad!

Prediction #4: "...the GOP wins Louisiana, Georgia, Colorado, Iowa, Alaska and Kansas for a 53 seat majority in the next Congress."
Result: The GOP picked up all those seats, plus North Carolina, to win a 54 seat majority.

Perhaps the most interesting part of my prediction was this:

Those eight seats are as follows (ranked in order of how likely I think the Republicans are to win):

1. Louisiana
2. Georgia
3. Colorado
4. Iowa
5. Alaska
6. Kansas
7. North Carolina
8. New Hampshire

....If my estimation is correct, we will be able to draw a horizontal line somewhere on this list, and everything about will go red; everything below will go blue. 

It turns out that this was almost exactly correct. One through seven went red (with a nail-biter putting North Carolina in the GOP column), and New Hampshire went blue in a closer than expected race. Missing from this race was Virginia--which I did not expect to be close. The GOP nearly pulled off an upset here.

Rationale #1:  "Well, that's not a very bold prediction, Karlen. You're just telling us what the polls are telling us!"

Yes, my analysis was heavily based on polling data, which I have long (correctly) argued is incredibly reliable on predicting elections. While my poll-based projections turned out to be quite accurate (as you'll see above), I think one of the most interesting aspects of this election is that the polls were way off in the magnitude of the GOP landslide.

For example, the polls and I predicted a two point Walker win. We look correct for getting the winner right, even though the final margin was nearly four points greater than the projection. If we miss by four points the other way, Mary Burke is the governor-elect, and we look like idiots. We might have gotten lucky.

So has polling broken down? Are response trends now too unpredictable that there's no way to use public opinion surveys to accurately gauge elections? That, my friends, is the million billion dollar question that we'll need at least another two years to answer.

Rationale #2: "One party usually takes home 70-80% of the tossup seats....That means that either the Democrats sandbag their losses, take a majority of the tossups and save their Senate majority or the GOP heads into 2015 with a stronger-than-expected majority."

If there's one thing I got right, it's the paragraph above.

Exit Prediction #1: Hillary will not be the next president of the United States.
Exit Prediction #2: Right now you're quietly cursing me for this subtle reminder that we've got two years of NONSTOP speculation, advertising and chatter about the 2016 presidential election.

Election-stravaganza/Open Thread/Live Blog/Fiesta UPDATE: WALKER WINS UPDATE: COMPLETE BLOWOUT

UPDATES BELOW

Greetings again, sports fans. Yesterday I posted my election predictions. Check them out if you haven't already. We'll be here all night as long as I feel like posting election updates.

Don't wait for the mainstream media to tell you the results. Check out posts (and comments) at the following websites and blogs to get the early dirt:

• Hot Air
• Ace of Spades Headquarters
• Ace of Spades Decision Desk
• Red State
• FiveThirtyEight

What to Watch For:

• Polls close on the East Coast first and then the Midwest. Early GOP wins in Florida (governor), Georgia (Senate), North Carolina (Senate), and New Hampshire (Senate) will be signs of a good night.
• Likewise Democrat wins in Kentucky (Senate), Wisconsin (governor), or Arkansas (Senate) would be DOOM for the GOP.

What Not to Watch:

• Exit polls
• Anecdotes about how long the line was at a particular polling place compared with the last election
• Early voting numbers
• MSNBC

Update (7:37 p.m.):
Mitch McConnell's quick win made me think we might be on the verge of a huge night for the GOP. However, the Republicans appear to be running behind Mitt Romney's 2012 page in North Carolina. New Hampshire also looks bad for the Republican nominee. Still very early to note any game-changing trends, but no surprises so far.

Also, Tom Cotton has picked up a Senate seat for the GOP in Arkansas. This was expected, but it is nevertheless a sign that the Republicans are on track.

Republican turned Independent turned Democrat Charlie Crist appears likely to win the governors' race in FL.

Update (8:30 p.m.):
Still very little news. No signs of a big GOP wave. Your perception of this election might hinge on the Virginia Senate race. We might get a call on the FL GOP race soon. Dem. Charlie Crist down just a percent with the Miami-Dade area still coming in.

Update (8:50 p.m.):
Republicans hold the statehouse in Florida. That's a surprise to me!

Update (9:14 p.m.):
Well, I started out extremely pessimistic, but things seem to be breaking the Republicans' way. A victory in Colorado, good trends in IA and KS, the governorship in FL and a projected gain of about 10 in the House.

Update (9:51 p.m.):
Well, some of the celebrations got in the way of me posting this earlier, but Walker wins. This has turned into a GOP wave. Not only do Republicans appear to be holding serve everywhere, but they look like they'll pick up North Carolina.

Update (beer thirty): An ode to Mary Burke (MK)

Update (10:55 p.m.):

Complete blowout. Nothing left to say... Go have some fun.

Update (11:12 p.m.): 

House elections:

Dist 1. Paul Ryan (R)(i) winner

Dist 2. Mark Pocan (D)(i) winner

Dist 3. Ron Kind (D)(i) winner

Dist 4. Gwen "Ramen Noodles" Moore (D)(i) winner

Dist 5. Jim Sensenbrenner (R)(i)

Dist 6. Glenn Grothman (R) winner

Dist 7. Sean Duffy (R)(i) winner

Dist 8. Reid Ribble (R)(i) winner

Men of Christ: We vote for life, marriage, and families

Tomorrow is a call to arms, a call to duty as Men of Christ. Brothers, tomorrow we must vote a well-formed Catholic conscience for the sake of the country, our communities, our church and our families.

We vote for life, from conception through natural death.

We vote for marriage between one man and one woman.

We vote for our families, that government will serve us—not the other way around.

Tomorrow must be the day we start to take our country back to the principles of our Founding Fathers, and the men and women who have fought and died to preserve them. Gentlemen, get battle-ready, and vote your well-formed Catholic conscience tomorrow!

via Men of Christ

Voting tomorrow in Wisconsin

I'd recommend the Wisconsin Family Action Voters Guide

Also Pro-Life Wisconsin endorsements 

Predictions for Election 2014

Greetings, my friends, and a tremendous Monday to all of you. In case you haven't noticed the bevy of ugly election signs in everybody's front yard, we've got an election tomorrow--and EXTREMELY IMPORTANT election. It's the election of a lifetime that will determine the future of our great nation. It's absolutely critical!

Just kidding. I can't remember a national election that's had less significance than this one.

That's not to say you shouldn't vote; you should. And the governor's race here in the Badger State certainly matters. But a lot of the hand-wringing over control of the Senate is silly. If the Democrats keep control, they'll still have to deal with a Republican House. If the Republicans take over, the president will veto any conservative legislation that Congress passes. (And let's be honest, the odds of even a Republican Congress passing conservative legislation is infinitesimally small.) 

I know Mitch McConnell promised that a Republican majority in the Senate will kill Obamacare. I've heard that line before. The GOP promises big things before an election. After the election, there's no tough decision that can't be delayed indefinitely.

Still, the political junkie in me can't help but to get excited on Election Day. I love watching the returns come in and analyzing who is winning, where, and why. And don't forget: Every time an incumbent loses, an angel gets his wings!

That said, let's make some predictions:

Wisconsin:

Walker: 51%

Burke: 49%

Lector: Well, that's not a very bold prediction, Karlen. You're just telling us what the polls are telling us!

Dear reader, you are correct. And if I enter a March Madness bracket with you this spring, there's a pretty good bet I'll take all number one seeds in the Final Four. I've been the guy who nails all the first round upsets--12 seeds over 5 seeds all day, baby! But that's not what gets you paid. Sometimes the road less traveled is less traveled for a reason.

I'll also predict that the GOP pulls off the attorney general race and narrowly expands the majority in the Legislature.

National:

I'm predicting the Republicans pick up an even 10 seats in the House of Representatives.

Now let's look where it's really interesting: the Senate. Just as we did when I accurately predicted the 2012 presidential election, we'll start with the RealClearPolitics.com map. As of my writing of this analysis, RCP had the Democrats likely owning 45 seats, the GOP 47, and eight toss-ups. 

Those eight seats are as follows (ranked in order of how likely I think the Republicans are to win):

1. Louisiana*
2. Georgia*
3. Colorado
4. Iowa
5. Alaska
6. Kansas
7. North Carolina
8. New Hampshire

Louisiana and Georgia are three-way races, and there will be a runoff election between the top two candidates next month--unless one of them takes home a majority (50% plus one vote) tomorrow. I'll predict both of these races go to a runoff, with the GOP picking up both seats.

If my estimation is correct, we will be able to draw a horizontal line somewhere on this list, and everything about will go red; everything below will go blue. 

Looking at the data, I'm inclined to draw that line right around Alaska--possibly above it, but probably below it. But it's also true that states considered tossups usually don't split evenly as we might guess. One party usually takes home 70-80% of the tossup seats. I knew this in 2012, but I still hedged my bets and predicted that Romney would carry the swing states of Colorado and Virginia in 2012. In reality, he carried neither while also losing Florida in a total blowout.

I'm not playing it safe again. That means that either the Democrats sandbag their losses, take a majority of the tossups and save their Senate majority or the GOP heads into 2015 with a stronger-than-expected majority. Which way do we go?

Well, given how unpopular the president is, I really have a hard time seeing his party carry red states like Louisiana, Georgia or Alaska. While I'm reluctant to believe in the GOP in states like Colorado and Iowa, which have been trending blue, the polls have consistently shown the Republican in the lead.

At the same time, over the last decade, the Republicans have struggled to perform at the levels polling would indicate. I mentioned that the tossup states tend to fall overwhelmingly to one party or another. Well, the Cook Political Report has a chart out that shows the the tossups have gone to the Democrats overwhelmingly each of the last four elections--including the 2010 GOP landslide!

So which way do we go? Ultimately, I believe the Republicans have shown enough strength in the polls, that I'm going to predict the GOP wins Louisiana, Georgia, Colorado, Iowa, Alaska and Kansas for a 53 seat majority in the next Congress.

We'll check back in Wednesday morning to see how it all shook out. 

Wisconsin Family Council releases 2014 Voter Guide

Dear Friends,

Wisconsin Family Action is pleased to offer your best voting resource for the Wisconsin General Election in November - the WFA Voter Guide - now available online at WFA.ivoterguide.com, your "go-to" site for non-partisan information on Wisconsin candidates.

"Very liberal" to "very conservative" - How do your candidates rate?

WFA's voter guide provides evaluations of the candidates on your ballot, along with the background information you need to make an informed vote. Vote ratings, endorsements, candidate statements on the issues, and more are available for you to review.

How does your personalized 2014 Voter Guide work?

You can access the Voter Guide at WFA.iVoterGuide.com

Simply log in, enter your address, and the WFA Voter Guide will do the rest!

How can you help others vote their values on November 4 in Wisconsin?
Share this link with friends and family.
Print your guide and take it to the polls.
Vote pro-family values!

Wisconsin Family Action stands ready and available to assist you during election time. If you have any questions, need assistance, or would like an individual print version of the 2014 Voter Guide, contact our office direct at 608-268-5074.

Wisconsin Family Action

Marquette poll: Walker 50, Burke 45 among likely voters

Gov. Scott Walker opened up a slight lead among likely voters on Dem rival Mary Burke in the latest Marquette University Law School Poll, the first time since March the advantage for either candidate has been outside the margin of error.

Fifty percent of likely voters backed Walker, while 45 percent supported Burke. Among registered voters, it was 46-45 Walker.

In the last poll two weeks ago, Walker and Burke were tied at 46 percent apiece among registered voters. Among likely voters, Walker had a 49-46 edge.

Poll director Charles Franklin said with the race now a little more than a month away, he is starting to focus more on likely voters.

He also called Walker’s lead on Burke among men “astonishing.” Walker led among men 62-34, while Burke led among women 54-40.

continue at WisPolitics

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Gov Walker says he senses no gay marriage 'movement'

Gov. Scott Walker, a staunch defender of Wisconsin's gay marriage ban, said Wednesday that he senses no "significant movement" to undo the law even though a federal lawsuit filed Monday challenges its constitutionality.

The lawsuit, filed by the American Civil Liberties Union, was brought on behalf of four same-sex couples who are seeking the same legal protections and civil rights that marriage between a man and woman provides. They argue that Wisconsin's ban, adopted by voters in 2006, violates the U.S. Constitution's equal protection and due process clauses.

But Walker, who faces re-election in November, sidestepped commenting on arguments in the lawsuit when asked about it Wednesday. Instead, he said as governor he was obligated to uphold the state constitution and the ban, but defending it would be left to Republican Attorney General J.B. Van Hollen.

"I haven't heard a significant movement across the state to make an alteration on that one way or the other," Walker said of the ban.

Polling shows increased support for legalizing gay marriage in Wisconsin and dozens of lawsuits have been filed across the country challenging similar laws. The U.S. Supreme Court in June ruled same-sex couples were entitled to federal benefits and a federal judge in December overturned a same-sex marriage ban in conservative Utah.

Read more: http://host.madison.com/news/state-and-regional/walker-says-he-senses-no-gay-marriage-movement/article_fbf603f6-5fb3-5a46-8b36-98b54f7cb730.html#ixzz2sZAAzmz2

The difference between Minnesota and Wisconsin on this issue is the ECLA(MN) and the WELS(WI).  People in Madison might not think so but I think it's a harder sell in Wisconsin, passing an amendment by 60% only 7 years ago.  They may want to believe that they got a 20 % swing, but the fact of the matter is that this move is happening precisely because they know they can't beat the amendment at the polls.  They'll have to use emotional appeals to squeamish judges.

Everyone knows this is not about gay "marriage," but specifically about gay adoption and redefining what a family is.  I've said this before, but the homosexualists are just taking the Dogma of the Sexual Revolution to its logical conclusion.  The definition of a natural marriage is as defined below:

As Fr. John Hardon explains in his Pocket Catholic Dictionary, there are four elements common to natural marriage throughout history:

1. It is a union of opposite sexes.
   
2. It is a lifelong union, ending only with the death of one spouse.
   
3. It excludes a union with any other person so long as the marriage exists.
4. Its lifelong nature and exclusiveness are guaranteed by contract.

If a natural marriage is not what is actually is, then it can be defined as anything.

The Dogma of the Sexual Revolution can be defined as:

The following is a false statement: The use of sexual powers can only legitimately be used with the above conditions.

And the anti-nature evangelizers will not stop until everyone believes wholeheartedly in this Dogma. 

But I can't emphasis enough that we need to support Wisconsin Family Action's religious freedom legislation.  They will close down Catholic Charities, schools, and any wedding related business in the state until we all submit to the homosexualist agenda.

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